who would win a war between australia and china who would win a war between australia and china

AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. No doubt Australian passions would run high. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. Chinas focus on its region would give it a local advantage in any clash with the US. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. But will it be safer for women? Beijing has already put its assets in place. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. But all the US planes cannot be dispatched to Chinas coastline. An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. Let's take a look at who would . "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. Anyone can read what you share. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. Australia is especially exposed. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Please try again later. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. "China's IADS makes a blockade the most likely scenario. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. All times AEDT (GMT +11). He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. Credit:AP. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Far fewer know their real story. One accident. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. And the West may not be able to do much about it. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". There are less quantifiable aspects as well. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict what Chinas military calls enemy disintegration. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. Some wouldn't survive. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. China is aware of this gap. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. Humans have become a predatory species. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. What would war with China look like for Australia? One real threat mistaken for a bluff. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. It can impose costs on our forces. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. Where are our statesmen?". China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. Principles matter, he writes. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.".